What Will Tariffs Impact? How They’re Reshaping Beverage Ingredient Costs

What will tariffs impact across your supply chain? Understanding which products will be affected by tariffs is crucial, as new tariffs raise prices. Brew Movers helps you navigate food and beverage trade tariffs while protecting your margins from increased market volatility.

The first quarter of 2026 has added new challenges for the craft beverage industry. Brewery, distillery, and soda owners now face more questions than recipes. Many are focused on changing international trade rules. The main question is simple: What will tariffs impact next?

At Brew Movers, we help you navigate the “red tape” of international trade. We understand that you’re not just making a product; you’re managing a business in a global economy. 

Today, we’re analyzing what products will be impacted by tariffs and how your logistics strategy can adapt to this trade war.

The Macroeconomic Ripple Effect: Federal Reserve and PCE Prices

To understand the current situation, we must look at the broader US economy. The Federal Reserve Board is closely monitoring the impact of new tariffs on inflation. One of the key metrics the Federal Reserve Bank uses to gauge the health of the economy is PCE prices (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

When the US government decides to authorize or impose tariffs on imported goods, the result is often a sharp increase in the average effective tariff rate. As these costs rise, they inevitably push consumer prices higher. 

For a brewery owner, this means that food and beverage trade tariffs directly cause increased market volatility; they are not just an abstract political issue.

If PCE prices continue to rise due to taxes on goods imported from our major trading partners, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation. This creates a cycle in which higher tariffs lead to higher raw-material prices, which, in turn, affect the industry’s overall economic growth.

Are these tariffs legal?

In early 2026, the Supreme Court addressed the legality of certain IEEPA tariffs, which are taxes imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While some experts argue the legality of these tariffs, the US government has continued to authorize IEEPA tariffs to protect domestic producers.

If the Supreme Court rules that certain tariffs are unlawful, it could lead to a temporary pause in higher tariffs, providing much-needed relief to the industry.

Historical Context: Steel, Aluminum, and the Trade War

The roots of today’s trade tensions lie in significant shifts in international trade policy regarding raw materials. Specifically, the imposition of steel tariffs and aluminum tariffs in previous years created a foundational shift for North American manufacturers. 

During previous trade negotiations, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners often exacerbated the trade deficit. This trade policy history shows that such tariffs rarely exist in a vacuum; they almost always invite foreign retaliation. 

When a trade war begins, it often starts with protective measures on metals, but it quickly spreads to finished goods and ingredients. 

For beverage producers, this meant that what started as a tax on the metal used for brewing tanks eventually morphed into a broader conflict affecting everything from glass bottles to fruit concentrates.

These historical retaliatory tariffs taught the industry that global supply chains are deeply interconnected. By understanding this history, beverage stakeholders can better prepare for how current trade practices might influence future import prices. 

Learn more: Freight Market Updates: What Beverage Shippers Need to Know

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What Products Will Be Impacted by Tariffs?

Identifying the vulnerabilities in your supply chain is the first step toward mitigation. The current trade environment has seen a variety of tariff rates applied to essential beverage components.

Aluminum and Steel Packaging

Packaging remains the most vulnerable sector. Aluminum tariffs and steel tariffs continue to raise prices for cans and kegs. Even after recent trade negotiations, imported aluminum can face a combination of Section 301 and Section 232 duties that reach up to 80%. 

These taxes imposed on imported goods have pushed retail prices higher, forcing many soda and beer producers to reconsider their packaging mix.

Malt, Barley, and Canadian Imports

Many producers rely on Canadian imports for high-quality malt and barley. 

Recent shifts in trade policy have led to fluctuations in average tariff rates on these goods, raising the cost of a standard truckload of grain. When trading partners engage in a trade war, retaliatory tariffs often target agricultural products. 

This means your pilsner malt or specialty hops could be subject to reciprocal tariff rates that significantly raise prices.

Specialized Brewing Equipment

It’s not only about what goes into the beverage, but also about the brewery equipment used to make it. 

Much of the high-quality stainless steel brewing equipment used in North America is manufactured in Europe or Asia. Steel and other tariffs on manufactured goods are raising the cost of new fermenters and bright tanks, potentially stifling business investment and slowing expansion plans. 

Hops and Specialty Ingredients

While the U.S. is a major producer of hops, many popular varieties used in hazy IPAs or traditional lagers come from Germany, New Zealand, or Australia. Additionally, producers of flavored sodas, kombuchas, and fruited sours often rely on fruit purees and concentrates from Mexico and South America. 

These ingredients are all subject to the new 15% global surcharge, meaning that your “exotic” seasonal release just became significantly more expensive to produce.